On July 9, as the world stared at the blood-splattered rubble of a Ukrainian children’s hospital in Kyiv, Russia celebrated its rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council with a lunch in New York. On the menu was chicken Kiev, a popular Russian dish of thin pounded cutlet filled with garlic butter. Before tucking in, the lunch’s host and Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, denied Russia’s responsibility for the bombing that killed two people and wounded seven children. If the diplomats choked on their chicken, they did so quietly.
The incident is a perfect summation of the world we live in now. As the West watches on, seemingly impotent, Russia grows ever bolder, like a bully who realizes the teacher isn’t coming. Russians’ fear of NATO, palpable at the start of the invasion of Ukraine, is now tempered by the impunity their leader enjoys no matter the atrocities committed on his watch. Why be afraid? Despite having the resources to end this war on Ukraine’s terms, the West clearly lacks the will to win. For Vladimir Putin, victory is now firmly within reach — irrespective of who is in the White House next year.
In the past two and a half years, Western leaders have reiterated that they “stand with Ukraine.” Yet despite saying the right words, those leaders continue to treat the war as a localized conflict in which they have few obligations. Promised military aid arrives late and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s resources — and restrictions, like those against targeting military assets in Russia itself, limit the aid’s effectiveness. The recent Ukrainian advance into Russian territory shows what could be possible if the shackles were lifted. But the West is wedded to its too-little-too-late approach, justified by the risk of provoking nuclear escalation from Russia. Ukraine’s application to join NATO is a moot point for the same reason.
Nor has the West managed to cut off the sources of Russia’s economic might, despite rounds of sanctions. The economy is growing healthily, and the assets of Russian oligarchs remain safe in the West, even if frozen. Most important, Russian oil is being bought and sold with minimal difficulty around the world as Western leaders can’t seem to decide what they want more: to meaningfully punish Russia or keep things as they are. Tellingly, the U.S. Treasury’s proposal to impose penalties on tankers that help Russian oil evade sanctions has stalled over the White House’s fear that higher gasoline prices won’t play well at the polls in November.
One person not worried about the American election is Mr. Putin. Unlike the equivocal West, Mr. Putin is playing seriously. He has put his country and his economy on a war footing, dedicating at least a third of the state budget to the military and enticing tens of thousands of Russians to join his war machine with generous salaries and payouts. He has expanded the theater into NATO’s territory, financing pro-Russian parties and politicians, spreading misinformation and directly targeting Western individuals involved in sending weapons to Ukraine. When confronted, Russia simply shrugs off the evidence.
This setup — an adversary with the will and resources to fight to the end and allies that deliver just enough aid to stop the front from collapsing tomorrow — leaves Ukraine in a bleak place. At a certain point Ukrainian resolve, already tested to the limit, will wear thin and a peace deal with Mr. Putin, on whatever terms, will become preferable to dying. This moment may come sooner if Donald Trump wins the American presidential election and ends the war “in 24 hours,” as he has promised, by forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Mr. Putin’s terms. Or it will come later if the Democrats keep the White House and continue their halfway house strategy.
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