After decades of global nuclear arms reductions, every nuclear state run by an authoritarian regime is heavily increasing its weapons and capabilities. The global balance of nuclear power is changingliberty slots, and the United States and its allies must also change their mind-set and invest in their own nuclear arms and missile defense.
In the United States, we have long maintained a nuclear triad consisting of nuclear-capable bombers, ballistic missile submarines and ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. All three legs now require substantial modernization and billions of dollars to keep pace with our adversaries. Maintaining a credible and effective nuclear deterrent will help prevent them from even considering a nuclear strike against America or its allies.
The most pressing threat comes from China. It is undertaking an alarming nuclear buildup, with the goal of doubling the number of nuclear weapons. “The explosive growth and modernization of its nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking,” Adm. Charles Richard, the former commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, said in 2021. “And frankly, that word ‘breathtaking’ may not be enough.” The Biden administration recently announced that it was realigning its nuclear posture to address China’s growing arsenal. But saying that we are realigning does not mean we are directing enough money toward the threat.
Elsewhere, North Korea has provocatively tested nearly 100 missiles over the past two years, presumably to perfect its ability to hit the United States with an ICBM and attack South Korea. It is also seeking to build a fleet of nuclear-armed submarines, which would allow its military to get closer to targets, evade radar systems and potentially strike allies and American bases in South Korea and Japan.
In the Middle East, which already sits on the edge of a regional war, Iran has drastically reduced the time it would take to develop a nuclear weapon as it increases the size of its uranium stockpile and develops and operates advanced centrifuges. In July, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran’s breakout time — the amount of time needed to produce enough material for a nuclear weapon — is down to one or two weeks. Iran has also launched a North Korean-derived ballistic missile that can travel nearly 2,000 miles and strike Central Europe, a development that seems to have a pointed message for the West: Iran will not stop until it has a missile that can travel across the Atlantic and hit the United States.
Russia, as it pursues its war on Ukraine, is not only aggressively modernizing all three legs of its nuclear triad. It is also developing a nuclear weapon to launch into space that could destroy satellites and grind our economic, international security and social systems to a halt. The Biden administration, after being challenged by a group of bipartisan members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence this year, declassified its intelligence about this weapon but has not released any further information about Russia’s space-nuke program since then. Russia’s use of an antisatellite nuclear weapon in space would be a catastrophic attack on Western economic and democratic systems.
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